Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Rational Thinking in Action: Proceed or Not?

Have you been in situations whereby you are in a dilemma on what to do with your carefully-thought plans? How do you respond under such conditions? Do you still continue with your plans? Or do you change your plans accordingly? Well, I face many of those situations and being imperfect, have my fair share of making the right as well as wrong decisions.

Right decisions give me the rare opportunities to praise myself while wrong decisions usually result in several days of cursing and swearing plus a few empty cans of beer. Although they make my days gloomy, wrong decisions also teach me a very valuable lesson: rational thinking.

Every information/event you receive/encounter can be classified into 3 distinct groups depending on its impact on your plans: no, positive and negative impact. Those under ‘no impact’ group have no direct effect on your plans, those under ‘positive impact’ group give more justifications to your plans while those under ‘negative impact’ group have the most possibilities: proceeding, delaying or cancellation of plans. Consequently, it is this group which causes the much dreaded dilemma. Which of the 3 you should choose depends on the next step: listing down the pros and cons of each possibility followed by determination of the one with most pros and least cons. No doubt the process is prone to human errors such as wrongly classifying the group which a specific information/event belongs to and selection bias due to personal preference for one possibility over the others, but you can certainly minimize those errors with experiences.

Here’s an example to illustrate the application of the above-mentioned process. Suppose you plan to meet your ex-classmates for dinner on Friday night. As the clock ticks towards the agreed time, your boss walks towards your table and tells you he wants a very important report by midnight. Obviously this will have a negative impact on your plan. Upon listing down the pros and cons, you decide to cancel your plan and rush out the report. Suppose instead of your boss irritating you with his last-minute demand, another friend calls you out. This by itself also has a negative impact on your plan but because the pros and cons are different, you decide to say sorry and stick to your original plan.

This example is straightforward. The penalties for making the wrong decisions are also small, perhaps nothing more than a reprimand from your boss or a light quarrel with your ex-classmates. However, the situations one faces in life are not always simple and have minimal consequences. Some wrong decisions can cost you your careers, relationships or even life. Therefore, think rationally before you act. Protect your plans zealously if you must but also be open to change, cancellation included, if the need arises.

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