Please don’t sideline virus transmission rate

Since last week, the world has been once again under attack by small unseen enemy. The Swine Flu A/H1N1 virus has wrecked havoc in places around the world, starting from Mexico. Numerous organizations, including the WHO is on full drive to ‘really’ identify the virus so proper measures can be put in place. Among one of the first few findings is its low mortality rate as compared to H5N1 counterpart which held the world hostage in early 2003.

Personally, I would like to think of the low mortality rate being contributed by 2 factors. Firstly, the genetic makeup of the A/H1N1 virus is not so deadly to human as compared to H5N1. Secondly, it has nothing to do with the genetic makeup, meaning that the 2 viruses have roughly the same genetic makeup. It is the preparedness of the various organizations that had averted the high mortality rate this time. Anyway, either one is good because we can reduce deaths. But is mortality rate the only thing we should be worried about?

No. Besides mortality rate, we also have to look at the transmission rate. The reason is no matter how low the mortality rate is, if the virus has high transmission rate, it will infect large number of people. A small percentage of very large number of people is still millions of deaths in absolute number. Thus, unless the virus also have low transmission rate, people shouldn’t be too happy with the fact that it has low mortality rate. So, what’s the transmission rate like?

Judging from the quick spread of the virus from humans to humans within a week (currently, about 27 countries across 4 continents have either confirmed or suspected cases), I think it has a high transmission rate. To find out if it is higher than H5N1 virus or not, we need to do more analytical studies.

In conclusion, the virus mortality rate is only part of the story. To understand the entire story, we need more than mortality rate. In this case, transmission rate is definitely a major factor that needs to be taken into consideration.