Indonesia Votes: The Real Reason Behind Those Political Maneuvers

With days before the release of the final result of the legislative election, many Indonesians have little doubt that SBY will win a second term as President without much difficulty. This is despite the ongoing discussions that large number of opposition parties have either organized or participated in. Notable ones include the meeting between Megawati Soekarnoputri (leader of PDI-P) and Jusuf Kalla (leader of Golkar), who until recently has been a loyal Vice-President to SBY as well as the meeting between Megawati, Prabowo (leader of Gerindra) and Wiranto (leader of Hanura)

One major reason for the lack of worry, at least among members of Democrat Party, the President’s party, is the nature of the Presidential election. Unlike the past 50 years where the President is elected by the legislative members, since the last election, the President has been directly elected by the people. Given SBY’s excellent track record during his first term, they are confident the people will once again elect him to be Indonesia’s President. But for how long can this “lack of worry” attitude last? Not very long. As a matter of fact, SBY may start to experience an uphill task as soon as his second-term starts.

Many opposition leaders, with the exception of several newcomers, are seasoned politicians. Even without their campaign advisors, they know very well they have little chance against SBY in the upcoming Presidential election. If that’s the case, why waste the time and resources to forge alliances? Well, it is my strong belief that the ongoing talks on alliances are not for the Presidential election whose outcome is more or less a done deal. Rather, the talks are to forge a cohesive opposition bloc that is capable of acting together as a formidable political force to undermine the President. If they are successful, many of the President’s proposals will be met with strong resistance when being debated in the Parliament and are unlikely to be passed, resulting in nothing more than a lame duck term for SBY. This will prepare the ground for a more competitive election in 2014.

Rather than relaxing and thinking of ways to celebrate his re-election, SBY should start engaging the various stakeholders. He can recruit more parties into his coalition, thus limiting the size of the opposition bloc to a level that will prevent them from exerting considerable influence in the Parliament. He can also try to split and sow discord among the opposition parties by getting some of their personalities to join him in his new administration. If all’s well, we can expect an even stronger Indonesia 5 years down the road.