Guarded Optimism for Post-Election Myanmar

The final tally of the by-election in Myanmar is out! The National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi won 43 out of the 44 seats that were contested. But is this the end by itself? Well, I would think of it as a step in the right direction but definitely not an end because a lot of uncertainties remain despite the historic event.

Firstly, while there is no doubt in her ability to inspire people, a lot of questions on Aung San Suu Kyi’s capabilities to run a country or rather contribute to the running of the country have been raised. This is not surprising considering that she is untested and spent a considerable time under house arrest.

Secondly, even if she is highly capable, critics have questioned her ability to influence key decisions made by the government since the NLD only holds approximately 5% of the parliamentary seats.

Thirdly, while President Thein Sein seems to be highly supportive of the political reform in Myanmar, there have been questions on how much influence he has over the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and how much power still resides with the military. There is always a possibility of a coup if he cannot convince them that he is right; Myanmar is afterall no stranger to coups.

Although the result of the by-election certainly deserves applause, the path ahead is far from smooth.