Since last week, the world has been once again under attack by small unseen enemy. The Swine Flu A/H1N1 virus has wrecked havoc in places around the world, starting from Mexico. Numerous organizations, including the WHO is on full drive to ‘really’ identify the virus so proper measures can be put in place. Among one of the first few findings is its low mortality rate as compared to H5N1 counterpart which held the world hostage in early 2003.
Personally, I would like to think of the low mortality rate being contributed by 2 factors. Firstly, the genetic makeup of the A/H1N1 virus is not so deadly to human as compared to H5N1. Secondly, it has nothing to do with the genetic makeup, meaning that the 2 viruses have roughly the same genetic makeup. It is the preparedness of the various organizations that had averted the high mortality rate this time. Anyway, either one is good because we can reduce deaths. But is mortality rate the only thing we should be worried about?
No. Besides mortality rate, we also have to look at the transmission rate. The reason is no matter how low the mortality rate is, if the virus has high transmission rate, it will infect large number of people. A small percentage of very large number of people is still millions of deaths in absolute number. Thus, unless the virus also have low transmission rate, people shouldn’t be too happy with the fact that it has low mortality rate. So, what’s the transmission rate like?
Judging from the quick spread of the virus from humans to humans within a week (currently, about 27 countries across 4 continents have either confirmed or suspected cases), I think it has a high transmission rate. To find out if it is higher than H5N1 virus or not, we need to do more analytical studies.
In conclusion, the virus mortality rate is only part of the story. To understand the entire story, we need more than mortality rate. In this case, transmission rate is definitely a major factor that needs to be taken into consideration.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Economics ≠ Business
I was reading Greg Mankiw’s blog this morning when I came across a link to an interesting article written by David Colander, Chair of Economics Department in Middlebury College. Basically, he was trying to identify the reasons why many students want to be economics majors, evident from the rising enrollments every year. Several were discussed and the root cause appeared to be economics being a “just-right” major. To quote him: economics major provides the appropriate middle ground of skill preparation, analytic rigor and intellectual excitement that students look for in a major, and that employers look for when hiring students.
Well although I won’t be attending economics classes anytime soon and so will not be able to give you a first-hand experience on attending one, I have to agree that is one of the reasons I have applied to do a postgraduate degree in economics. The opportunity to learn about science, apply it in a social context and in the process, improving the lives of the people is another reason why I have made up my mind to switch to economics. For students whose motivations to learn economics are the same as those shared by David and/or me, I think that enrolling in an economics course is an excellent decision.
For students who haven’t really made up their mind about their future plans, enrolling in economics is also a very good decision because the nature of the training doesn’t restrict you to a particular field and therefore allows you to venture to your field of interest once you have found one. Economics is one of the few fields that still keep many doors open even after you complete the course.
However I have to express my disappointment with students who already made up their mind of working in business but take economics simply because their liberal-arts colleges don’t offer business courses and economics is a good substitute. I believe that by doing so, these students are depriving others who are keener than them in learning about economics of the opportunities to do so by competing for the limited number of available places. I have to qualify that I make this statement without any concrete information about the number of applications and number of available places in each college and hence the degree of competition between these 2 groups of students.
Regardless, my point is: if you have made up your mind on a particular field, then you are strongly advised to enroll in a course on that particular field. Don’t enroll in another field that you have no interest in and intend to leave because you will only end up depriving others of the opportunities to enroll in the field of their interest.
Well although I won’t be attending economics classes anytime soon and so will not be able to give you a first-hand experience on attending one, I have to agree that is one of the reasons I have applied to do a postgraduate degree in economics. The opportunity to learn about science, apply it in a social context and in the process, improving the lives of the people is another reason why I have made up my mind to switch to economics. For students whose motivations to learn economics are the same as those shared by David and/or me, I think that enrolling in an economics course is an excellent decision.
For students who haven’t really made up their mind about their future plans, enrolling in economics is also a very good decision because the nature of the training doesn’t restrict you to a particular field and therefore allows you to venture to your field of interest once you have found one. Economics is one of the few fields that still keep many doors open even after you complete the course.
However I have to express my disappointment with students who already made up their mind of working in business but take economics simply because their liberal-arts colleges don’t offer business courses and economics is a good substitute. I believe that by doing so, these students are depriving others who are keener than them in learning about economics of the opportunities to do so by competing for the limited number of available places. I have to qualify that I make this statement without any concrete information about the number of applications and number of available places in each college and hence the degree of competition between these 2 groups of students.
Regardless, my point is: if you have made up your mind on a particular field, then you are strongly advised to enroll in a course on that particular field. Don’t enroll in another field that you have no interest in and intend to leave because you will only end up depriving others of the opportunities to enroll in the field of their interest.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The Effect of Time on Our View of The Community
While watching a TV programme late last night, I came across an interesting phenomena. This programme was about the daily life of 2 laowais who are currently staying in Beijing, China. Things such as language barrier, food and customs were discussed. During one of the scenes, 1 laowai actually commented that he preferred living in China than wherever he came from because he found that the Chinese are very simple people who choose to spend their free time playing a game of chess or enjoying a hot cup of tea with their neighbors. He added that the Chinese are not arrogant and never try to live beyond their means, unlike their Western counterparts.
Hmmm….strange, I thought to myself. Having spoken to several Westerners and read about their culture, I always have the impression the Westerners enjoy simple life more than the Asians. They seldom splurge on luxuries such as brand new mobile phones every few months. They avoid headaches by giving their children freedom to decide what they want to do once they come of age and thereafter, decline to meddle in their affairs. Last but not least, instead of saving their hard-earned money to buy houses and cars for their children to show off, they use it to pay for their travels around the world. Put is simply, it is the exact opposite of what I heard from the TV programme. Why such contradiction, I ask myself.
Though it remains to be proven, I have a strong feeling the main reason is time spent with the community. Born a Chinese and having lived in Chinese communities for 26 years, I have seen so many extravagant Chinese that I have the mindset of Chinese as a haughty bunch. On the contrary, having only heard the good things about Westerners and never really live in Western communities, I always have the impression that they are simple, humble people who never try to live beyond their means.
The same can be said for the laowai in the TV programme. As he had encountered so many proud Westerners throughout his life, he has the mindset that Westerners are nothing but a bunch of arrogant people. He had good impression of the Chinese because he has stayed in China for only a short period of time and therefore, has not really encountered the nasty people in the community.
Well, that’s human nature for you. When one lives in a place for only a short while, one will have mostly good impression of the place and its people. But when one lives in the same place for a long period of time, one will start to inadvertently uncover the bad attitudes of the people, sometimes to such an extent that it can be labeled as prejudice.
Hmmm….strange, I thought to myself. Having spoken to several Westerners and read about their culture, I always have the impression the Westerners enjoy simple life more than the Asians. They seldom splurge on luxuries such as brand new mobile phones every few months. They avoid headaches by giving their children freedom to decide what they want to do once they come of age and thereafter, decline to meddle in their affairs. Last but not least, instead of saving their hard-earned money to buy houses and cars for their children to show off, they use it to pay for their travels around the world. Put is simply, it is the exact opposite of what I heard from the TV programme. Why such contradiction, I ask myself.
Though it remains to be proven, I have a strong feeling the main reason is time spent with the community. Born a Chinese and having lived in Chinese communities for 26 years, I have seen so many extravagant Chinese that I have the mindset of Chinese as a haughty bunch. On the contrary, having only heard the good things about Westerners and never really live in Western communities, I always have the impression that they are simple, humble people who never try to live beyond their means.
The same can be said for the laowai in the TV programme. As he had encountered so many proud Westerners throughout his life, he has the mindset that Westerners are nothing but a bunch of arrogant people. He had good impression of the Chinese because he has stayed in China for only a short period of time and therefore, has not really encountered the nasty people in the community.
Well, that’s human nature for you. When one lives in a place for only a short while, one will have mostly good impression of the place and its people. But when one lives in the same place for a long period of time, one will start to inadvertently uncover the bad attitudes of the people, sometimes to such an extent that it can be labeled as prejudice.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Indonesia Votes: The Real Reason Behind Those Political Maneuvers
With days before the release of the final result of the legislative election, many Indonesians have little doubt that SBY will win a second term as President without much difficulty. This is despite the ongoing discussions that large number of opposition parties have either organized or participated in. Notable ones include the meeting between Megawati Soekarnoputri (leader of PDI-P) and Jusuf Kalla (leader of Golkar), who until recently has been a loyal Vice-President to SBY as well as the meeting between Megawati, Prabowo (leader of Gerindra) and Wiranto (leader of Hanura)
One major reason for the lack of worry, at least among members of Democrat Party, the President’s party, is the nature of the Presidential election. Unlike the past 50 years where the President is elected by the legislative members, since the last election, the President has been directly elected by the people. Given SBY’s excellent track record during his first term, they are confident the people will once again elect him to be Indonesia’s President. But for how long can this “lack of worry” attitude last? Not very long. As a matter of fact, SBY may start to experience an uphill task as soon as his second-term starts.
Many opposition leaders, with the exception of several newcomers, are seasoned politicians. Even without their campaign advisors, they know very well they have little chance against SBY in the upcoming Presidential election. If that’s the case, why waste the time and resources to forge alliances? Well, it is my strong belief that the ongoing talks on alliances are not for the Presidential election whose outcome is more or less a done deal. Rather, the talks are to forge a cohesive opposition bloc that is capable of acting together as a formidable political force to undermine the President. If they are successful, many of the President’s proposals will be met with strong resistance when being debated in the Parliament and are unlikely to be passed, resulting in nothing more than a lame duck term for SBY. This will prepare the ground for a more competitive election in 2014.
Rather than relaxing and thinking of ways to celebrate his re-election, SBY should start engaging the various stakeholders. He can recruit more parties into his coalition, thus limiting the size of the opposition bloc to a level that will prevent them from exerting considerable influence in the Parliament. He can also try to split and sow discord among the opposition parties by getting some of their personalities to join him in his new administration. If all’s well, we can expect an even stronger Indonesia 5 years down the road.
One major reason for the lack of worry, at least among members of Democrat Party, the President’s party, is the nature of the Presidential election. Unlike the past 50 years where the President is elected by the legislative members, since the last election, the President has been directly elected by the people. Given SBY’s excellent track record during his first term, they are confident the people will once again elect him to be Indonesia’s President. But for how long can this “lack of worry” attitude last? Not very long. As a matter of fact, SBY may start to experience an uphill task as soon as his second-term starts.
Many opposition leaders, with the exception of several newcomers, are seasoned politicians. Even without their campaign advisors, they know very well they have little chance against SBY in the upcoming Presidential election. If that’s the case, why waste the time and resources to forge alliances? Well, it is my strong belief that the ongoing talks on alliances are not for the Presidential election whose outcome is more or less a done deal. Rather, the talks are to forge a cohesive opposition bloc that is capable of acting together as a formidable political force to undermine the President. If they are successful, many of the President’s proposals will be met with strong resistance when being debated in the Parliament and are unlikely to be passed, resulting in nothing more than a lame duck term for SBY. This will prepare the ground for a more competitive election in 2014.
Rather than relaxing and thinking of ways to celebrate his re-election, SBY should start engaging the various stakeholders. He can recruit more parties into his coalition, thus limiting the size of the opposition bloc to a level that will prevent them from exerting considerable influence in the Parliament. He can also try to split and sow discord among the opposition parties by getting some of their personalities to join him in his new administration. If all’s well, we can expect an even stronger Indonesia 5 years down the road.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Be Courteous and Please Chuck Aside That Arrogance
Yesterday, I encountered 2 different people who came to view my house with the intention of renting it. One is a middle-aged woman who works for a courier company. The other one is a young Indian couple who stay nearby.
The middle-aged woman is a pleasant lady. When I opened the main door and say “hi”, she responded with a cheerful “hi” as well. She also introduced herself to me, telling me where she works, how long she has been away from Singapore and that she will be staying alone in the unit. She also asked for my permission before she proceeded to view the rest of the house, particularly my room. All in all, it was a great experience and quite honestly, I have a feeling that my house will be in good hands if she is the tenant.
The young Indian couple, on the other hand, is rude and arrogant. When I welcomed them with a “hi”, they didn’t respond. For a while, I thought my “hi” was too soft but the agent responded to it. They also kept on looking at the ceiling, giving me the impression that I wasn’t worth their notice. Subsequently, they just barged through me to view the rest of the rooms as if they have rented the unit. For goodness sake, do I look so desperate to rent out the unit? Why can’t you show some courtesy? Is being an Indian expatriate so great that you can look down on other people? All these are in addition to his ridiculously low quotation.
But that’s fine because I learn 2 important lessons that I want to share with you guys: 1) being courteous to others goes a long way. Besides making their day, you will also likely get the same courteous treatment from them. 2) There’s really no need to be arrogant because being successful now doesn’t mean you will remain successful throughout your life. Also, the world is so big that even if you are successful, there are many who are equally so, if not more.
The middle-aged woman is a pleasant lady. When I opened the main door and say “hi”, she responded with a cheerful “hi” as well. She also introduced herself to me, telling me where she works, how long she has been away from Singapore and that she will be staying alone in the unit. She also asked for my permission before she proceeded to view the rest of the house, particularly my room. All in all, it was a great experience and quite honestly, I have a feeling that my house will be in good hands if she is the tenant.
The young Indian couple, on the other hand, is rude and arrogant. When I welcomed them with a “hi”, they didn’t respond. For a while, I thought my “hi” was too soft but the agent responded to it. They also kept on looking at the ceiling, giving me the impression that I wasn’t worth their notice. Subsequently, they just barged through me to view the rest of the rooms as if they have rented the unit. For goodness sake, do I look so desperate to rent out the unit? Why can’t you show some courtesy? Is being an Indian expatriate so great that you can look down on other people? All these are in addition to his ridiculously low quotation.
But that’s fine because I learn 2 important lessons that I want to share with you guys: 1) being courteous to others goes a long way. Besides making their day, you will also likely get the same courteous treatment from them. 2) There’s really no need to be arrogant because being successful now doesn’t mean you will remain successful throughout your life. Also, the world is so big that even if you are successful, there are many who are equally so, if not more.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Never decline the offer to learn
During the course of our life, we occasionally encounter requests for help that are totally different from what we are doing currently. Most people tend to reject them on the basis that they are totally unrelated to their jobs or interests. However, is rejection the right thing to do? Well, I don’t think so.
As I like to mention, life is unpredictable and full of surprises. Things that are unrelated to you at the moment may not remain so forever. Sometime in the future, these may end up helping you. And if you reject them now, it means giving up the opportunities to gain the knowledge that may assist you.
Suppose you are currently doing molecular biology research. During a gathering with your ex-classmates, one of them tells you that he is exploring business opportunities in Myanmar and needs help in preparing report on both market and company analysis. Although you have ample time at your disposal, you decide not to offer your help as you don’t think you will do business in Myanmar. A couple of years later, you realize that you are getting tired of molecular biology research and wish to try other options. Coincidentally, Myanmar is becoming one of the “next economies” and you begin to take interest in the possible opportunities that you can explore in Myanmar. If you have offered your help in generating the report for your friend, then perhaps you will be one step ahead of the others.
The moral of the story is: If you have time, please do not decline any opportunities because it may help you in the future. Anything in this world, including those that many resent is worth learning because you never know their usefulness until you need them.
As I like to mention, life is unpredictable and full of surprises. Things that are unrelated to you at the moment may not remain so forever. Sometime in the future, these may end up helping you. And if you reject them now, it means giving up the opportunities to gain the knowledge that may assist you.
Suppose you are currently doing molecular biology research. During a gathering with your ex-classmates, one of them tells you that he is exploring business opportunities in Myanmar and needs help in preparing report on both market and company analysis. Although you have ample time at your disposal, you decide not to offer your help as you don’t think you will do business in Myanmar. A couple of years later, you realize that you are getting tired of molecular biology research and wish to try other options. Coincidentally, Myanmar is becoming one of the “next economies” and you begin to take interest in the possible opportunities that you can explore in Myanmar. If you have offered your help in generating the report for your friend, then perhaps you will be one step ahead of the others.
The moral of the story is: If you have time, please do not decline any opportunities because it may help you in the future. Anything in this world, including those that many resent is worth learning because you never know their usefulness until you need them.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
What’s new, North Korea?
About two weeks ago, our beloved hermit kingdom launched what it claimed was a satellite, declaring that it too had entered the space age. When no one detected the alleged satellite passing through the atmosphere and began to speculate that it was after all a cover for a missile test, North Korea began its all too familiar routine: blame the outside world for plotting against it, announce that it is pulling out of the six-party talk and will restart its nuclear programme. Frankly Mr Kim, as a movie fanatic yourself, aren’t you tired of the same outcome playing again and again?
As a matter of fact, North Korea has been playing its nuclear card every time it hopes to gain more bargaining power in the negotiation table, much like we use wild cards in our favorite board games. Fortunately for Mr Kim and his servile followers, it always works and so, he has become bolder as time passes.
In response to the same tactic employed by a particular player over and over again, we usually develop strategies to counter him. Everyone knows that but for some reasons or another, the top-notch negotiators representing the other 5 countries (or the world if I may) have not been doing that. The outcome: Mr Kim’s continuous success in holding the entire world hostage and the frequent on-off nuclear disarmament talks, which for your information is proceeding at a pace slower than snail when it is on.
To prevent further waste of resources and time, I believe it is worthwhile to consider exerting more pressure on Mr Kim’s regime. As a start, I thought it is good to demand more concrete steps from North Korea in return for keeping our side of the bargain. For example, instead of requesting that it shuts down its nuclear facility, why not ask North Korea to tear down some core buildings in the complex. By doing so, even if it decides to walk out from the negotiation, it will not be easy to restart its nuclear programme. The blowing up of the cooling tower a few months ago is definitely a step in the right direction.
Depending on North Korea’s response, we may decide to stay the course or exert even more pressure. We must send a message to Mr Kim that enough is enough and the world will not fall for his deceit again. However, there must certainly be a limit to the amount of pressure that we can apply on him. Extremely hawkish attitude such as removing Mr Kim by force is a definite no-no because of its grave consequences. North Korea without Mr Kim may descend into a state of anarchy worse than Iraq and Afghanistan. In this regard, it is better to deal with one known maniac than countless unknown clowns. Right, Mr Kim?
As a matter of fact, North Korea has been playing its nuclear card every time it hopes to gain more bargaining power in the negotiation table, much like we use wild cards in our favorite board games. Fortunately for Mr Kim and his servile followers, it always works and so, he has become bolder as time passes.
In response to the same tactic employed by a particular player over and over again, we usually develop strategies to counter him. Everyone knows that but for some reasons or another, the top-notch negotiators representing the other 5 countries (or the world if I may) have not been doing that. The outcome: Mr Kim’s continuous success in holding the entire world hostage and the frequent on-off nuclear disarmament talks, which for your information is proceeding at a pace slower than snail when it is on.
To prevent further waste of resources and time, I believe it is worthwhile to consider exerting more pressure on Mr Kim’s regime. As a start, I thought it is good to demand more concrete steps from North Korea in return for keeping our side of the bargain. For example, instead of requesting that it shuts down its nuclear facility, why not ask North Korea to tear down some core buildings in the complex. By doing so, even if it decides to walk out from the negotiation, it will not be easy to restart its nuclear programme. The blowing up of the cooling tower a few months ago is definitely a step in the right direction.
Depending on North Korea’s response, we may decide to stay the course or exert even more pressure. We must send a message to Mr Kim that enough is enough and the world will not fall for his deceit again. However, there must certainly be a limit to the amount of pressure that we can apply on him. Extremely hawkish attitude such as removing Mr Kim by force is a definite no-no because of its grave consequences. North Korea without Mr Kim may descend into a state of anarchy worse than Iraq and Afghanistan. In this regard, it is better to deal with one known maniac than countless unknown clowns. Right, Mr Kim?
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